From oil to biomass: the emergence of a new resource order

Good Thursday afternoon!

It’s Christin again, your bioeconomy enthusiast, and it’s time for some bioeconomy reading! Here’s a quick roundup of the stories, developments and discussions that shaped the field this week.

The National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology (NSCEB) has launched a State Resource Guide aimed at strengthening U.S. leadership in biotechnology. The guide draws on insights from the Commission’s Biotech Across America Roadshow, which connected regional biotech hubs to share approaches, identify common challenges, and highlight strategies that can be scaled nationwide.

The initiative takes an ecosystem approach, recognizing that scaling the bioeconomy is not primarily a technology challenge. Addressing it requires new forms of communication, coordination, and engagement across regions and sectors.

The guide highlights best practices in talent development, commercialization, and bioliteracy, offering real-world examples for building a more integrated and resilient national biotechnology ecosystem. (NSCEB)

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As protectionism rises and geopolitical tensions spread across regions bordering the Middle East, China is taking a different approach: rather than closing markets, it is opening them – selectively. Its latest move looks like an opportunity story. But it may be something more strategic.

Since May 1, China has expanded its zero-tariff policy to 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations. The official framing is straightforward: lower trade barriers, boost African exports, and support industrialization at a time when global trade is fragmenting. African goods gain easier access to the vast, quality-conscious Chinese consumer market. On the surface, this is a classic win-win.

Yet the policy’s deeper logic points beyond trade. As Indekhwa Anangwe of Nature Finance puts it: “The zero tariff is the entry ticket, and the bioeconomy is the long-term strategy.” In other words, tariff liberalization is not only about trade volumes; it is also about positioning within future resource systems.

That matters because biomass, one of the most critical resources of the coming decades, is finite. Estimates suggest a global biomass supply shortfall of 40–70% by 2050. In that context, facilitating the imports of agricultural and bio-based products is more than commercial policy. It is a matter of strategic resource access.

Access vs. rules: a growing divide

Elsewhere in the world, too, new approaches to multilateralism are being pursued. The Mercosur agreement between the European Union and Latin American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) reflects Europe’s attempt to balance market access with environmental and social standards. Although the agreement provisionally entered into force on May 1, further negotiations are expected.

At the same time, pragmatism is gaining ground in EU trade policy. The recently concluded negotiations for an EU–India free trade agreement illustrate this shift. While the agreement still includes a Trade and Sustainable Development (TSD) chapter, a longstanding hallmark of EU trade architecture, the enforcement mechanisms are weaker than those in recent EU free trade agreements. The Paris Agreement, for instance, no longer holds “essential element” status, and there is no binding dispute settlement for sustainability provisions. The direction seems clear: less emphasis on strict conditionality, more focus on strategic cooperation.

Meanwhile, China grants comprehensive duty-free access to African countries with which it has diplomatic relations. For many African countries, the immediate appeal is clear: faster access, fewer upfront conditions, and quicker implementation.

A shift happening in real time

The timing is critical. This is not a legacy trade structure; it is a real-time geopolitical shift. New trade patterns are emerging just as global supply chains are being reconfigured. Meanwhile, Europe’s current crisis management remains focused on stabilizing existing systems. Debates following the tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz focus on energy prices, subsidies, and the “strategic mistake” of turning its back on nuclear power. The priority is resilience within the current framework.

However, the strategic question globally is already moving on: What resources will underpin the industrial base of the future?

China appears to be answering that question early. By providing market access for African exports and investing in infrastructure, logistics, and industrial capacity – often through the Belt and Road Initiative – it is establishing supply chain linkages that extend far beyond trade. Ports, railways, and production networks are being aligned to facilitate long-term flows of goods and resources.

This approach is reinforced by China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, which emphasizes “high-level opening up”, deeper engagement with the Global South, and the strengthening of innovation ecosystems. The goal is not only to gain access to imports, but also to integrate into future growth corridors and value chains.

Who controls the value chain?

For Africa, the opportunity is real, but so is the risk. Tariff-free access alone does not determine who benefits. As Anangwe argues, the key question is whether African economies can transition from exporting raw materials to establishing regional value chains that retain processing, innovation, and standard-setting on the continent.

This requires a deliberate strategy involving investment in infrastructure, improvements in product quality, and the development of bioeconomy clusters that anchor value creation locally.

Without this strategy, there is a danger of repeating familiar patterns of exporting raw resources while importing higher-value goods. In that sense, the emerging bioeconomy is not a neutral space. It is shaped by existing power structures, historical inequalities, and competing geopolitical interests (Backhouse et al., 2021).

The missing layer: global trade rules

What remains striking is how little of this shift is anchored in the multilateral trading system.

Organizations like the World Trade Organization were designed to provide common rules, transparency, and dispute resolution. But their influence has weakened as major powers increasingly rely on bilateral agreements, preferential access schemes, and strategic industrial policies. The result is a more fragmented trade landscape. Rather than a single rulebook, overlapping regimes are emerging, each reflecting different priorities, such as access, standards, security, and sustainability. This is precisely why multilateral frameworks matter now more than ever.

The launch of the G20 Initiative on Bioeconomy in 2024 marked a significant step: bioeconomy became part of the official G20 agenda and the Leaders’ Declaration. The adoption of the 10 High-Level Principles on Bioeconomy represents the first multilateral framework of its kind. While non-binding, these principles establish the bioeconomy as a permanent topic in global governance discussions.

International trade also seems to be a priority for the current G20 presidency. According to the U.S. G20 website, “The United States sees a global trading order of the future that is based on fair, reciprocal, and balanced trade. It is in G20 members’ shared interest to take action in a new direction.” However, given the current U.S. trade policy, the Trade Working Group is unlikely to have an easy task.

China’s zero-tariff policy signals where the global economy may be heading. The question is no longer just who gains access to markets, but also who secures access to the resources that will define the next industrial era.

If oil shaped the geopolitics of the 20th century, biomass may shape that of the 21st. The question is whether the rules will follow.

That’s it for this week’s Bioeconomy Snap.

Please note: Due to a public holiday in Germany, there will be no newsletter next week. The next edition will be published on May 21.

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Have a wonderful week ahead!